Remember the Melian Dialogue

In 416 BC, during the Peloponnesian War, Athens demanded that the small island of Melos submit to its power. The Melians appealed to justice, neutrality, international custom, the gods, and the hope that Sparta would come to their aid.

The Athenians answered with one of the most brutal statements in the history of political thought:

“The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”

Melos refused to surrender. Athens conquered the island, killed its adult men and enslaved its women and children.

The lesson is not that Athens was right.

The lesson is that being right did not save Melos.

That distinction matters again.

For decades, Europeans convinced themselves that international law, treaties, economic interdependence and security assurances had progressively replaced power politics. They have not. International law remains valuable. Alliances matter. Diplomacy matters. Institutions matter. But none of them abolishes the fundamental problem exposed at Melos: what happens when a stronger power decides to break the rules?

The answer ultimately depends on whether somebody can stop it.

Ukraine should have ended our illusions.

In 1994, Ukraine agreed to relinquish the nuclear arsenal it had inherited after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the Budapest Memorandum, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom reaffirmed commitments concerning Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and existing borders.

Twenty years later, Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. In 2022, it launched a full-scale invasion.

The assurances existed.

The tanks crossed the border anyway.

This does not mean that every country needs nuclear weapons. Nor does it mean that international law is meaningless. It means something more uncomfortable: a security guarantee is ultimately worth the power and political will available to enforce it.

Europe should understand this particularly well. Russia uses nuclear deterrence not merely to protect Russian territory but to constrain what other countries dare to do in response to Russian aggression. Every time Europeans ask, “What if Russia escalates?”, Russian nuclear weapons are already producing political effects without being fired.

Europe possesses enormous economic, technological and military power. France possesses an independent nuclear deterrent. Britain possesses another. The European Union collectively dwarfs Russia economically.

Our problem is therefore not simply weakness.

It is our persistent reluctance to understand power as our adversaries understand it.

Justice without power can be violated. Treaties without enforcement can be broken. Guarantees without credible consequences can become pieces of paper.

None of this makes power just.

It makes power necessary for justice to survive.

Remember the Melian Dialogue.